The Cause

Nova Scotia sends billions annually to Ottawa through taxes, equalization payments, and resource revenues, receiving only a fraction back in transfers and services.
Independence would allow us to retain these funds, investing directly in Nova Scotians' priorities. Here's how:

• Federal Contributions: Nova Scotia contributes approximately $7-8 billion annually to federal coffers through income taxes, GST/HST, corporate taxes, and resource royalties (e.g., offshore oil and gas). In 2023-24, Nova Scotia received $2.7 billion in equalization payments and $2.2 billion in health and social transfers, totaling about $4.9 billion-roughly 60-70% of our contributions. The remainder funds federal programs, debt servicing, and projects often prioritizing Ontario and Quebec.

• Local Reinvestment: Retaining $7-8 billion annually would transform Nova Scotia's economy and quality of life. Key priorities include:

• Healthcare: Nova Scotia's 2024 budget allocated $7.1 billion to healthcare, yet emergency room wait times and doctor shortages persist. An additional $2-3 billion could hire 1,000+ doctors, build new hospitals, and expand mental health services, reducing wait times and improving outcomes.

• Affordability: With 40% of Nova Scotians struggling with cost-of-living increases (2024 data), $1-2 billion could fund tax cuts, housing subsidies, and energy rebates, easing burdens on families and seniors.

• Education and Skills: Doubling the $1.5 billion education budget could reduce class sizes, modernize schools, and expand trades training, preparing youth 

for local industries like fisheries and renewable energy.

• Coastal Sustainability: Investing $500 million annually in fisheries, aquaculture, and coastal infrastructure would protect jobs and adapt to climate change, preserving our maritime heritage.

• Infrastructure: Upgrading roads, broadband, and public transit with $1 billion yearly would boost rural economies and attract investment.

• Eliminating Federal Red Tape: Independence would free Nova Scotia from federal regulations that stifle growth, such as complex environmental assessments delaying offshore wind projects or fisheries quotas favoring foreign fleets. Local control ensures policies reflect Nova Scotia's unique needs.

Policy Priorities for an Independent Nova Scotia and Future Maritime Union

• Healthcare for All: Use retained federal funds to eliminate wait times, hire specialists, and build rural clinics, ensuring every Nova Scotian has access to timely care.

• Affordable Living: Implement tax cuts, rent controls, and energy rebates to make Nova Scotia the most affordable province, attracting families and retirees.

• Sustainable Fisheries: Protect our $2 billion fishery by setting local quotas, banning foreign trawlers, and investing in aquaculture innovation.

• Green Energy Leadership: Develop 5 GW of offshore wind by 2030, creating 8,000 jobs and exporting clean power to New England.

• Maritime Unity Framework: Negotiate a tri-provincial compact for shared services (e.g., healthcare, education) by 2030, laying the groundwork for a unified government.

• Cultural Preservation: Fund Gaelic, Acadian, and Mi'kmaq heritage programs to strengthen our Maritime identity as a beacon for unity.

A Maritime Union uniting Nova Scotia (pop. 1.03 million), New Brunswick (рор.
834,000), and Prince Edward Island (pop. 173,000) would create a sovereign nation of
2.04 million people with a combined GDP of approximately $90 billion (2024 estimate).
Below, we assess its economic feasibility, drawing on regional strengths and addressing challenges.

Economic Strengths of a Maritime Union

• Shared Resources and Economies: The Maritimes share a resource-based economy (fisheries, forestry, tourism, energy) and cultural identity, making unification natural. A combined GDP of $90 billion (Nova Scotia: $50 billion, New Brunswick: $35 billion, PEI: $5 billion) rivals small nations like Iceland ($28 billion) or Luxembourg ($82 billion).

• Fisheries and Aquaculture: The Maritimes produce $3.5 billion annually in seafood exports (lobster, scallops, salmon). A unified trade policy could negotiate better international deals, bypassing federal restrictions.

• Energy: Nova Scotia's offshore wind potential (5 GW by 2030) and New
Brunswick's nuclear expertise (Point Lepreau) could make the union a renewable energy hub, attracting $10 billion in investment by 2035.

​

• Tourism: A unified "Maritime" brand could boost the $4 billion tourism sector, with coordinated marketing for attractions like Cape Breton, Fundy, and PEl's beaches.

• Ports and Trade: Halifax, Saint John, and Charlottetown ports handle $30 billion in trade annually. A Maritime Union could streamline logistics, competing with Montreal and Vancouver.

• Fiscal Capacity: The Maritimes collectively send $15-18 billion to Ottawa yearly.
Retaining these funds would enable a balanced budget for a union government, covering healthcare ($14 billion), education ($5 billion), and defense ($1 billion, modeled on small nations). A flat 15% income tax and 10% sales tax could replace federal taxes, simplifying administration.

• Governance Efficiency: A single government for 2.04 million people would reduce duplication (e.g., three provincial legislatures). A unicameral parliament with 60-80 seats could operate on $200 million annually, saving $100 million compared to current provincial budgets.

• Currency and Trade: A Maritime dollar, pegged to the U.S. dollar, could stabilize trade (60% of Maritime exports go to the U.S.). Alternatively, adopting the U.S. dollar (like Panama) would simplify integration. Free trade agreements with Canada, the U.S., and the EU would maintain market access.

Economic Challenges and Mitigations
• Debt and Transition Costs: The Maritimes' combined provincial debt ($30 billion) requires a 20-year repayment plan, potentially funded by resource revenues and federal transition payments (modeled on Quebec's 1995 referendum negotiations).
Initial costs for new institutions (e.g., central bank, passport office) could reach $2 billion, offset by long-term savings.

• Economic Diversification: Reliance on resources (fisheries, energy) risks volatility.
Investing $1 billion in tech hubs (e.g., Halifax's startup ecosystem) and advanced manufacturing could create 10,000 jobs by 2030.

• Population and Scale: A population of 2.04 million is small but viable, comparable to Slovenia (2.1 million, GDP $68 billion). Emigration risks (youth leaving for Ontario) require incentives like tax breaks and housing grants.

• Federal Pushback: Canada may resist secession, citing economic impacts (Maritimes contribute 5% of national GDP). A referendum with 60%+ support and international mediation (e.g., UN observers) would legitimize the process.

Feasibility Assessment
A Maritime Union is economically feasible if phased strategically:

1. Phase 1 (5-10 years): Nova Scotia achieves independence via referendum, retaining federal contributions and negotiating trade agreements. New Brunswick and PEl observe, building public support.

2. Phase 2 (10-15 years): Maritime Union formed through a tri-provincial treaty, establishing a federal government, currency, and unified policies.

3. Phase 3 (15-20 years): Full sovereignty with diversified economies, global trade partnerships, and a stable population.

The union's small scale ensures agility, while shared resources and trade leverage create resilience. Iceland and New Zealand prove small nations can thrive with focused governance and export-driven economies.